Bernard Lugan
authorized translation and dissemination. Taken from the site
www.realpolitik.tv
No regret the satrap Libyan responsible for many attacks, countless crimes and destabilization of entire regions of Africa. Having said that let the emotional given to devotees of the superficial and the swooning reporters to be interested in reality. The end of Gaddafi which is likely to have consequences that we are far from measuring the width, is actually far less tied to the Democratic People's aspiration rather than the manifestation of the explosion tribal alchemy which rested on his power.
Unlike Egypt and Tunisia, Libya in more than 90% of the territory is desert, is not actually a state but a conglomerate of more than 150 tribes divided into sub-tribes and clans. These groups of traditional alliances and shifting in the bosom of the three regions that make up the country, namely the city of Tripoli, which looks out towards Tripoli Tunis, Cyrenaica Benghazi and the capital of which is that it is facing Cairo and the region of Fezzan, whose main city is Sebba, and juts out into the Chad Basin and the bend of the Niger.
Since independence of Libya in 1951 until the coup which brought Colonel Gaddafi to power in 1969, Libya was a monarchy directed by tribes Cyrenaica. Member of a small tribe of Bedouin camel drivers, Colonel Qaddafi was brought to power by a military junta multi-tribal dominated but in which the two main tribes of Libya, that of Warfallah of Cyrenaica and that of Megahra of Tripoli. Most of the tribes of Cyrenaica, however, remained attached to the monarchy, and so Colonel Gaddafi was produced in a great political move by marrying a young woman of the clan of Firkeche, this member of the royal tribe of Barasa, what assured the membership of the rebel Cyrenaica.
However, today is his whole system of alliance with Cyrenaica who flew into pieces. The crucial date of the dissolution of the tribal system in 1993 when Gaddafi is a coup of Warfallah was drowned in blood. Hatreds were later muted so strong was the terror imposed by the regime but the tribes of Cyrenaica not expected that opportunity to revolt and trial was presented in February 2011. They are so taken over the region's sporting the flag of the ancient monarchy.
Gaddafi has certainly lost Cyrenaica, as the Turks and Italians before him, but he remains the Tripolitania and Fezzan. In these two regions, the regime had also made subtle tribal alliances. By the time these lines are written, ie 27 February 2011, some tribes have left the field but the great solidarity of Gaddafi still shaky though.
In the short term, the main danger to Colonel Gaddafi is not the Cyrenaica separated by more than 1,000 miles of desert from Tripoli, the Libyan army, nor is the surreal and even fewer volunteers who parade can be seen in the streets of Benghazi and Tobruk . Everything is in effect suspended from the wire to decide who will the leaders of the warrior tribe that dominates the Megahra in Tripoli. Long allied with that of Gaddafi the Khadidja, it provided a time the regime's number two, in the person of the commander Abdeslam Jalloud before his fall from grace in 1993 when he was suspected of having had links with putschist Warfallah. If Megahra remain loyal or even take a position of neutrality, Gaddafi may persist for some time to power on part of the country. If not, then you will really be in trouble and forced to retreat to his own tribe, who did not row that 150,000 members. If Gaddafi
Meghara abandon it would mean that they are intending to seize power and Libya would be cut in two, Tripolitania and Cyrenaica venendosi find dominated by tribal alliances formed around Wafallah and Meghara. The question that would arise would be the survival of the Libyan state.
These two sets will fight or will share power in a federal or confederal framework? We ignore it but the danger is to see see a situation such as clan and tribal wars in Somalia. They could be followed by the explosion in more regions, which would open a space for unexpected Aqmi - Al Qaeda Islamic Maghreb - who find fertile ground in the midst of chaos, and more, in the south, a dissident of the population that Toubou would have repercussions in Chad, and initiatives which could support the Tuareg Tuareg irredentism Mali and Niger, not to mention, of course, impact on oil policy that would result from such a conflict.
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